"In my judgment, the best way to stop the violence is to understand why the violence occurred in the first place." For once I agree with President Bush. Unfortunately his analysis of causes turns out to be a little limited as he continued: "And that's because Hezbollah has been launching rocket attacks out of Lebanon into Israel and because Hezbollah captured two Israeli soldiers. The best way to stop the violence is for Hizbollah to lay down its arms and to stop attacking."
Lets step back and give the President a brief history lesson. In 1948 and again in 1967 European Jewish settlers drove millions of Palestinians out of their land. A large number ended up in camps in neighbouring Lebanon, thereby destabalising the newly created country (carved out of Syria by the French to be a Marionite-majority state) with a delicate balance of over a dozen sects (Shia, Suni, Druze and Marionite Christian being the largest). By 1975 the tensions resulting from the presence of Palestinians exploded into the Lebanese Civil War which lasted until 1990 and claimed over 100,000 lives in the tiny nation [Pity the Nation by Robert Fisk is still the classic history of the war]. Israel invaded first in 1978 (but withdrew after UN condemnation) and again in 1982 under Ariel Sharon, initially pushing into the country as far as Beirut (during which Sharon's Phalangelist allies - a Marionite militia ironically styled on the Nazis - notoriously massacred thousands of Palestinians in the Sabra and Shatila refugee camps). Israel withdrew to the South of Lebanon which it occupied until 2000.
Southern Lebanon, as it turns out, is the heartland of the country's Shia Muslims - largely poor and rural and now the largest grouping, representing perhaps 45% of the population (exact population statistics are a delicate issue in Lebanons political system which allocates certain numbers of seats in Parliament to each sect, but the birth rate of the Shia has caused the biggest demographic shift in Lebanon's history). The presence of Israeli troops and proxy militias catalysed the formation of Hizbollah ("Party of God" in Arabic) as a Shia Islamicist resistance force, with close links to Iran and Syria. When Israel finally withdrew in 2000 Hizbollah naturally claimed this as a victory. A small area on the border called Shebaa Farms remains contested and Israel and Hizbollah have been exchanging fire at relatively low levels for the past six years. Hizbollah has also been calling for a long time for the release of its members captured over the years by Israel.
The Lebanese elections in 2005, following the assassination of former PM Rafiq Hariri, changed the situation dramatically. Firstly Hizbollah became a powerful force in parliament, increasing its representation from 8 to 23 out of 128 MPs (still far below what they would have got in a national proportional representation electoral system). Secondly Syria, which like Israel had been interfering in Lebanon since the Civil War, finally withdrew its soldiers. Although Syria and Hizbollah are traditionally close, the Syrian army probably exerted some restain on Hizbollah (quite the reverse of what Israel may claim) which has reduced since the withdrawal.
So with all this background, my quick summary of causes for President Bush are: Hizbollah (whose identity is based on resistance to the 18yr Israeli occupation), emboldened by its increasing political representation and freedom of action since the Syrian withrawal, has been openly looking for leverage to negotiate a prisoner release. Perhaps imspired by the Palestinian attack on an Israeli military base near Gaza last month, Hizbollah launched one of its largest strikes across the border, destroying two Israeli Humvees, a tank, killing 8 soldiers and capturing 2. Hizbollah then expressed its openness for a prisoner exchange with Israel, something which has happened before.
Instead of negotiations, Israel, with overwhelming military superiority, launched a massive campaign not solely against Hizbollah but across the whole of Lebanon including bombing the airport (which I have flown through 3 times this years, and which some English friends flew out of just a few hours before the first Israeli strike), roads, petrol stations etc. killing over 70 civilians at the current count. Quite apart from the fact that this is collective punishment of the Lebanese people on a massive scale, there is no way Hizbollah is going to roll over in response. This is not going to bring about the release of the two Israeli POWs (who I'd like to see back with their families). What it will do is devesate Lebanon's economy, which had only really begun to recover three decades after the start of the Civil War (Dan Halutz, Chief of Israel's Army, has made the shocking threat to "take Lebanon 20 years back"), kill many more innocent civilians, and possibly reignite the civil war if the Lebanese government is forced to crack down on Hizbollah. Interestingly in both Gaza and Lebanon Israel reacts with much more agression whenever its army is attacked than when there are suicide bombings or other attacks on civilians.
If President Bush would only take his own advice and understand the causes then he would be the best placed person to stop the violence. Sadly this is unlikely to happen. I had lunch today with a Jewish friend in London who posed the question "how does Israel think it can get away with this?" and the answer of course is that it has been getting away with massive collective punishment as "defense" and "response to terrorism" in the West Bank and Gaza for decades (today it even bombed that bastion of terrorism - the Ministry of Economy in Gaza).
Having written all this, I find as usual the Wikipedia community has already done a much better job which will stay updated unlike this blog entry.Here is the BBC's coverage which is ok so far. From more detailed coverage see the Electronic Intifada. Blogs: Joshua Landis, gives the perspective of an American in Damascus. Prof. Juan Cole sees things in the region more clearly from Michigan than most people on the ground. Here is a collections of Lebanese blogs on Open Lebanon.
