The end of Iraqi Democracy

Within the next 12 months there is likely to be a bloody Coup de-tat by senior officers in the Iraqi Army and those close to them. It will entail killing of a large number of the leaders in the current (many of whom are aquiantances or friends) and certainly the murder of Ayatollah Sistani and others in the religious leadership. This is the view of some of the most experienced Iraq analysts I know working in Baghdad at the moment. They can even point out the most likely coup leaders. The only thing which is required is for (a) the sectarian violence to get even worse, which its fairly certain and (b) for the US to give a tacit nod of approval. This is beginning to look like their only exit strategy. It will spell the end of for Wolfowitz's supposed dream of a democratic Iraq and more importantly the hopes of the Iraqi people for self-determination. But if it can bring an end to the sectarianism and insecurity than maybe they'll accept a coup with open arms. This is all deeply depressing. Hundreds of Thousands will have been killed, millions impoverished and made refugees and the country's infrastructure devestated - all leading up to a new Saddam. Maybe this won't happen. But some experts seem to be predicting it and quietly hoping for it as well.